Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #540306 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 05.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012 AFTER DEVELOPING A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EARLIER...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...LIKELY DUE TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADIER INTENSIFICATION AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF 340/02 IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. LESLIE IS CAUGHT IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESLIE TURNING A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH BY DAY 5 WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE... COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 25.4N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 25.8N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 26.2N 63.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 26.6N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 26.9N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 28.2N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 31.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 37.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
