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| #540617 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 06.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 MICHAEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE EYE BECOMING WARMER AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYING STRONG. WHILE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 90 KT AT 0600 UTC...OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM ADT AND THE GOES-R HIE PRODUCT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN BETWEEN 107 AND 110 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVE AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING MICHAEL THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE... CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...OF THE SEASON. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH DROPPING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF COOLING SSTS AND INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE COULD WEAKEN MICHAEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEWEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN THE LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST OF THIS CYCLONE DUE TO IT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF BOTH MICHAEL AND LESLIE. THE HURRICANE APPEARS ON TRACK...MOVING 045/6. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MICHAEL BEGINS TO BE STEERED AROUND A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN 48H AS TO WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND THE LOW...LIKE THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS... OR IF THE RIDGE MISSES MICHAEL AND THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHWARD... MORE LIKE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK WAS MADE AT DAY 5 TO COME CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 29.6N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 30.3N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 30.9N 41.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 31.4N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 32.0N 42.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 33.1N 43.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 34.5N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 36.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
