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| #540622 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 06.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE REMAINS RAGGED...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW APPEARS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESLIE. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF MOTION IS RESULTING IN SOME COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE NEAR THE CYCLONE...AS EVIDENCED BY A 1C SST DECREASE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT NOAA BUOY 41049. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON THE LASTEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR...AND UPWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE AND LESLIE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LESLIE HAS HARDLY MOVED OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/01 AS THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND THE TREND OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF LESLIE EARLY ON AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND/OR LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS THE TROUGH MISSING LESLIE ENTIRELY. AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL...WHICH IS A FAST OUTLIER THAT SHOWS LESLIE BEING CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AT END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG- RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0153 UTC ASCAT PASS AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 40149. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 26.3N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 26.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 26.7N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 27.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 27.7N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 31.0N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
