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| #541013 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 07.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012 THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS. THE CENTER IS PASSING JUST EAST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 WHICH REPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER... SUGGESTING THAT LESLIE STILL LACKS AN INNER CORE. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS SST MICROWAVE DATA...ARE INDICATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER THESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN THE DEEP TROPICS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 27.4N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 28.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 30.2N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 47.0N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
