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| #541014 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 07.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MICHAEL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT LESS ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE RECENT T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90-102 KT...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KT. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING MICHAEL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEGATIVE PRIMARY FACTORS BEING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLING WATERS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD MOVE BRIEFLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST IN THE 48-96 HR TIME RANGE TO COME CLOSER TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM FORECAST...WITH MORE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING ENOUGH SEPARATION FROM LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL CURVES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 31.4N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 31.8N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 32.3N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 33.1N 42.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 33.6N 43.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 35.4N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 42.0N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 52.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
