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| #541327 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 08.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC AROUND A LARGE CLOUDLESS CENTER OF CIRCULATION... COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A TRUCK TIRE/DOUGHNUT-TYPE PATTERN. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PERFECTLY ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR SO. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR BY DAY 4 WHEN LESLIE IS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED BY 96 HOURS WHEN LESLIE IS ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE. THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 29.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 32.2N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 36.0N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 44.0N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 48.0N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
