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| #541768 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 10.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL HAS INCREASED RECENTLY...THE EYE APPEARS LESS DISTINCT AND IT HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...WHICH IS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING MICHAEL CURRENTLY. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 26C AND BE NEARING A COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW MERGING WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TONIGHT...AS MICHAEL MOVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL...OR THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS SHORTLY AFTER 0000 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 33.5N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 34.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 36.0N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 39.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 43.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
