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| #541825 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 10.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012 LESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE SPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. LESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS INTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. SINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS AROUND THAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 37.0N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
