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| #54193 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:58 PM 26.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE WARNINGS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
