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| #54194 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:58 PM 26.Oct.2005) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL NOT TROPICAL...AND LAST ADVISORY... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 29.2N 62.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
