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| #5420 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 16.Aug.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042004 0300Z TUE AUG 17 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 39.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 39.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.1N 41.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 35.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 38.5N 29.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN |
