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| #542156 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 11.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012 SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF TD FOURTEEN...AND CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS REMAIN T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB. SINCE THERE IS NOT YET CONSENSUS FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOON. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN THAT TIME SPAN. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC BY DAY 4. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE LGEM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LEAST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING OF ALL THE INTENSITY MODELS AND BARELY BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 50 KT. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5 DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND IT NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/10 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING...WITH THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE ONE NOTEWORTHY POINT IS THAT THE NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER TRACK MODELS... THIS TIME SHOWING A STRONGER EASTWARD MOTION AND A SHARPER RECURVATURE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.5N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 18.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 19.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.4N 50.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 23.2N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 31.5N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
