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| #542709 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 14.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. THIS CHANGE MAY BE DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND BY CIMSS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. NADINE CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/13. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THAT TIME. A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK MODELS AFTER THAT TIME. THE NOGAPS IS A FAR LEFT OUTLIER...SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE ON THE NORTHERN OR LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE CLUSTER...WHILE THE THE ECMWF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFTED OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT LIES NEAR THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. WHILE MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THIS LOOKS OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 60 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HR...AND IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF NADINE WEAKENED INSTEAD. THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 26.3N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.1N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 30.1N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 31.1N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 31.4N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 32.0N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
