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| #542931 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 15.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012 NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING... ALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE 76 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. NADINE CONTINUES ITS RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 050/13. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. AFTER THREE DAYS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THESE MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...AND THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. NADINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF SO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS AT LEAST 25-35 KT OF SHEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FORECAST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT WITH NADINE IN 72-96 HR... WHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE RESULTS OF THIS INTERACTION ARE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ANY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 30.7N 51.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.1N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 31.1N 46.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 31.0N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 33.0N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 35.5N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
