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| #543559 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 17.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012 AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB. NADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE CYCLONE MOVES. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR. NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID- LATITUDE SOURCES. WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE COULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
