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| #54363 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 27.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005 BETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM AND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES PROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE CENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE RELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS TO 90 KNOTS. BETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT BETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE AND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN THIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA WESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE TWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE. IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. FORECASTER AVILA ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 12.1N 81.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
