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| #544381 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 20.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012 IT IS HARD TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT NADINE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 45 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH...PRELIMINARY DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE IS NOT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THIS TIME...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS MORE TROPICAL NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HAVING SAID THAT...NADINE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIVING THAT IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW. AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCING NADINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL STEER NADINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN...THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE...AND NADINE WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE LONG RANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR TUNES...AND WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN EASTWARD MOTION...AND VICEVERSA. SINCE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT...THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO KEEP NADINE NEARLY STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 36.8N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 35.0N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/0600Z 32.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0600Z 32.0N 25.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 32.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
