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| #54510 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 28.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005 THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55 KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE. BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
