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| #545309 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 24.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012 NADINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. AN ASCAT OVERPASS SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED 35-40 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS NADINE REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS...IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND NADINE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD....IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR NADINE WILL EXPERIENCE. THE GFS WHICH KEEPS NADINE FARTHER SOUTH...SUGGESTS A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND JUST BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. NADINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DIVERGENT THAN YESTERDAY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND HWRF KEEP NADINE IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS. ON THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF AND UKMET TAKE NADINE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FOR NOW...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 31.7N 27.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.9N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 31.7N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 31.2N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 30.6N 31.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 29.8N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 30.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 32.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
