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| #545411 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 24.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION...EXTENT...AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE. BANDING FEATURES REMAIN ILL-DEFINED AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE FOUND IN A CLUSTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS OF 35 KT AND...EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THESE DATA...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 40 KT AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO THE LATTER VALUE...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH OF NADINE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE A WARMER OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD... THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 32.2N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 29.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 31.5N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 30.7N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.9N 30.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 31.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
