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| #545617 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 25.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012 THE CENTRAL REGION OF NADINE CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD CONVECTION-FREE AREA...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS BETWEEN THE LATEST ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FIELD OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NADINE WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STABLE AIR MASS...AND NOT A CONDUCIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER NADINE IS NOT STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY WARM...AND SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING. THE STORM HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 210/4. THIS MOTION...OR EVEN A SOUTHWARD MOTION...IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A STRONG TROUGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...NADINE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO A HIGH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE ANY TIME SOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 31.2N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.5N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.6N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.7N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.4N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 29.0N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 31.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
