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| #546108 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 27.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE BEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK. NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR OUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE HAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS. NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A BLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING NADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING AIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.8N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 30.4N 35.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 32.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 34.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 37.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
