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| #546307 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 28.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 65 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012 NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN EYE HAS MADE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. HOWEVER...THE EYE AT THE MID-LEVEL SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 25 N MI NNE OF THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. REGARDLESS OF THE TILT AND THE SHEAR...THE CURRENT DVORAK-BASED AND MICROWAVE- BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT...AS DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS METHOD. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7. FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 32N47W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR MOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN 48-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW MOTION FROM 48-96 HR IN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NADINE COULD PERFORM AN CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THIS TIME AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD NADINE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE OLD THROUGH 96 HR...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 120 HR. HOWEVER...THE 120-HR POINT IS NOT AS FAR EAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER 15-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY INTERACT WITH NADINE AROUND 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN TOO POOR OF AGREEMENT ON THIS TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 30.1N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 31.3N 35.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 33.2N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 35.1N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 36.1N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 36.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
