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| #546371 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 28.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012 THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE WEST AND RESTRICTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS. NADINE HAS OVERCOME THE SHEAR SO FAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR AND STAY AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR...IS DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING NADINE. MOST LIKELY...THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THE EFFECTS OF COLD WATERS...WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...NADINE COULD ESCAPE THE TROUGH AGAIN AND MANAGE NOT TO WEAKEN AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. NADINE IS ALREADY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGH. AFTER THAT...NADINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE BASE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT...AND NADINE COULD THEN BEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS NADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
