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| #54679 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 29.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. EVEN WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.7N 82.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W 100 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED |
