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| #546801 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 30.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 73 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012 SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED. HOWEVER... DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 4.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING MARKEDLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. UNTIL THAT TIME...NADINE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AND SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER. FASTER WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...AND NADINE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. NADINE IS SLOWING DOWN AND BEGINNING ITS COUNTERCLOCKWISE TURN. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/6...BUT THE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE SLOWING DOWN FURTHER AND TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE SHOULD BEGIN FEELING THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS NADINE CONTINUING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AND REVOLVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...LYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 37.2N 39.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 37.0N 39.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 36.2N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 35.7N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 35.5N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 37.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 43.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 49.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BERG |
