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| #546923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 01.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 75 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012 NADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS. THESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT WAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY AGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 36.3N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 35.6N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 35.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 34.9N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 35.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 38.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 46.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/0600Z 50.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
