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| #546992 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 01.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN. NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BEFORE THAT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4... NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD THE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 34.9N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 34.9N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 35.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 47.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN |
