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| #547056 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 01.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 77 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012 THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEARLY THREE-WEEK-OLD NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SINGLE BAND WHICH IS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO 3.5 AND 3.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON THESE...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF 45-50 KT IN A CONVECTIVE-FREE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION. NADINE HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 180/4. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 3...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE BEING ADVECTED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW...BEFORE BECOMING COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER FROM THIS SOLUTION...AND SHOWS THE RESILIENT CIRCULATION OF NADINE PUSHING EASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO GREAT BRITAIN. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER...IT NOW SHOWS NADINE BEING ABSORBED BY DAY 5. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS CYCLE...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NADINE EXPERIENCES AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS... EVEN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 34.7N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 35.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 42.4N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1800Z 47.5N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN |
