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| #547188 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 02.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 79 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012 THE STORM IS MAINTAINING A RING OF MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER AS NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 DEG C. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD SSTS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNDERGONE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING FRONTAL IN NATURE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR TO MERGE WITH...A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING EASTWARD...AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND 105/6. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. A VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES IN A FEW DAYS. NADINE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...IF POST-TROPICAL NADINE HAS STILL MAINTAINED ITS IDENTITY...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONE UNTIL BECOMING COMPLETELY ABSORBED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 34.5N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 34.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 35.9N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 38.8N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 45.5N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/0600Z 49.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
