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| #547248 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 02.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 80 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A RING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WRAPS AROUND A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND TAFB...SUGGESTING THAT NADINE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN BEFORE. HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS MAINTAINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. NADINE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER SSTS BELOW 20C AFTER PASSING THE AZORES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. NADINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KT...BUT AN EASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED VERY SOON. BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 34.2N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 34.4N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 35.3N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 37.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 40.7N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 46.5N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
