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| #547301 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 02.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012 NADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 34.9N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 39.0N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 43.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
