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| #547478 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 03.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012 STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING... AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SOON NADINE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE LOW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.1N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 36.8N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 40.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
