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| #54750 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:31 AM 30.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24 HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6. BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.7N 83.8W 80 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.5N 84.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.2N 86.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
