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| #547665 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 04.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012 NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. RECENT AMSU DATA INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL THE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20. NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 38.4N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 41.9N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0600Z 45.2N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 48.5N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
