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| #547800 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 04.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012 OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. SEVERAL LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THAT CENTER. SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT. OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 21.3N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.0N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
