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| #5488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 17.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004 THE EYE IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME ELONGATED ON A NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE EYE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CI NUMBERS INDICATE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS...THE T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. DANIELLE COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY FIVE OR BEFORE. DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGRES AT 16 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN BETWEEN THE 36 AND 72 HOUR PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS SUGGESTED BY NOGAPS...UK AND THE GFDL MODELS. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THE THESE TWO MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE IT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UK TRIO...MAINTAIN A DEEPER CIRCULATION WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO STEER THE CYCLONE WITH THE MEAN LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING NEARBY OR OVER THE AZORES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 25.8N 40.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 40.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 32.0N 39.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 33.5N 37.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 36.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 38.0N 30.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 46.0N 20.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
