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| #549377 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 11.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED...CONVECTION IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS AT 35 KT. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGH...GIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTION TODAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE 30-KT ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 35 KT...MAKING PATTY THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON. THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. FIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SECOND...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE CENTER MAINTAINING VERTICAL COHERENCE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT PATTY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INITIALLY...THEN IS BLENDED NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS AT 24H. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 25.8N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 24.9N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
