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| #549625 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 12.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL... SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 63.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT. THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN |
