Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #549658 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 12.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012 DESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A ESTIMATION. PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN AND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS. PATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 24.7N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 23.9N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
