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| #549661 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 12.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012 ...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 63.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF DOMINICA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
