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| #549686 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 AM 13.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...RAFAEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 63.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA |
