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| #549739 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 13.Oct.2012) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 64.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 64.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N 65.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N 66.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.4N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 35.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 64.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA |
