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| #549805 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 13.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS RAFAEL MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 64.1W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM ...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND REACH CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
