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| #549808 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 13.Oct.2012) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 64.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 64.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 64.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.2N 65.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.6N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
