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| #549866 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 13.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION ON BARBUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH... 56 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
