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| #549868 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 13.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF RAFAEL HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 56 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE NOTED TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY AS RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAY 5. WITH THE RECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 015/10 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ADDITIONAL JUMPS IN THE CENTER LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BY ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE TO DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN HOW RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVELOPE AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 22.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 24.4N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 50.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
