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| #549923 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 13.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL PASSES WEST OF ST. MARTIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 63.6W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION ON BARBUDA RECENTLY REPORTED 6-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 37 MPH... 59 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...69 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
