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| #550045 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 14.Oct.2012) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
