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| #550071 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 14.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 ...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043... LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 47 MPH...75 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
